Iran's ability to break out of its peaceful nuclear program and make a weapon could be delayed at talks opening Monday that will test Teheran's willingness to make good on a tentative deal reached earlier this month.
But ahead of the talks Iran is signaling that it will not meet terms the West said it agreed to – including transferring most of its stock of enriched uranium
, the potential base for fissile warhead material. Teheran says it needs enriched uranium for nuclear fuel, but the West fears it could be used for weapons.
Teheran’s stance could doom both Monday’s talks and chances of a second round of broader negotiations between Teheran and six world powers on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.
Monday’s Vienna talks between Teheran and the US, Russia and France, focus on a technical issue with huge strategic ramifications – whether Iran is ready to farm out some of its uranium enrichment program
to a foreign country
Progress would strengthen confidence on the part of the US and five other big powers trying to persuade Iran to dispel fears about its nuclear program that this time Teheran is serious about reducing tensions and ready to build on Oct. 1 Geneva talks with six world powers.
Beyond that, it could give the international community more negotiating space by delaying Teheran’s ability to turn what is now a civilian uranium enrichment program into an assembly line producing fissile warhead material.
The talks Monday will attempt to implement what Western officials say Iran agreed to during the Geneva talks; letting a foreign country – most likely Russia – turn most of its low-enriched uranium into higher grades to fuel its small research reactor in Teheran.
That would mean turning over more than 1,200 kilograms of low-enriched uranium – more than 2,600 pounds and as much as 75 percent of Iran’s declared stockpile. Tentative plans are for further enrichment in Russia and then conversion in France into metal fuel rods for the Teheran reactor.
Iranian agreement to such terms would be significant because 1,000 kilograms is the commonly accepted threshold of the amount of low-enriched uranium needed for production of weapons-grade uranium enriched to levels above 90 percent.
Based on the present Iranian stockpile, the US has estimated that Teheran could produce a nuclear weapon between 2010 and 2015, an assessment that broadly jibes with those from Israel and other nations tracking Teheran’s nuclear program.
If most of Iran’s declared stock is taken out of the country, further enriched abroad and then turned into fuel for the Teheran reactor, any effort to make nuclear weapons would be delayed until Iran again has enriched enough material to turn into weapons-grade uranium.
"It buys some time," said David Albright of the Washington-based IISS, which has closely tracked Iran for signs of any covert proliferation. But Albright added that Iran could replace even 1,200 kilograms of low-enriched uranium "in little over a year" at its present rate of enrichment.
And ahead of the talks it remained unclear whether Iran was even ready to discuss shipping out most of its enriched stock.
Iran’s state-run Press TV cited unnamed officials in Teheran as saying the Islamic Republic was looking to hold on to its low-enriched uranium and buying what it needed for the Teheran reactor abroad.
Such a stance would likely doom the talks, with neither the US or France accepting such terms.
A senior Western diplomat in Vienna who is familiar with Monday’s talks told The Associated Press shortly before they were to begin that the Iranians had not communicated any refusal to discuss transferring their enriched uranium to the delegations involved in the negotiations.
Even if Teheran agrees, it could still try to resist pressure to hand over most of its stock in one batch, insisting instead on sending small amounts out of the country. Iran still has enough fuel for the Teheran reactor to last until mid-2011.